CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2024-07-26T21:24:00-CME-001)

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Mars, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-07-27T20:54:45Z
## Message ID: 20240727-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

Update on CMEs with IDs 2024-07-26T21:24:00-CME-001, 2024-07-26T20:48:00-CME-001, and 2024-07-27T06:36:00-CME-001 (see previous notifications 20240727-AL-001 and 20240727-AL-003).  Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, and Mars (glancing blow).  The combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach Lucy at 2024-07-30T19:43Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2024-07-28T14:01Z, and STEREO A at 2024-07-29T08:51Z. The flank of CME with ID: 2024-07-27T06:36:00-CME-001 may reach Mars at 2024-08-01T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). 

The simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-07-29T13:38Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).
   

CME parameters are (C-type):

1: Start time of the event: 2024-07-26T21:24Z.

Estimated speed: ~646 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 20 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -1/-5 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2024-07-26T21:24:00-CME-001


2: Start time of the event: 2024-07-26T20:48Z.

Estimated speed: ~676 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 42 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -5/-15 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2024-07-26T20:48:00-CME-001


3: Start time of the event: 2024-07-27T06:36Z.

Estimated speed: ~803 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 42 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 5/13 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2024-07-27T06:36:00-CME-001


Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-07-26T21:24:00-CME-001, 2024-07-26T15:23:00-CME-001, 2024-07-26T20:48:00-CME-001, 2024-07-27T06:36:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif


## Notes: 

This CME event (2024-07-27T06:36:00-CME-001) is associated with M3.1 flare from Active Region 13762 (S11W25) with ID 2024-07-27T05:12:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-07-27T05:46Z.

The simulation results also include S-type CME with Activity ID: 2024-07-26T15:23:00-CME-001.


SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


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